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Montier james value investing blog

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Think about what pro forma earnings mean…. Investors regularly fail to look through the way information is presented to them in this fashion. Miguel: You talk about the benefits of reverse engineering DCF models — as a check on implied growth rates. Run us through the basic steps of a reverse dcf? However, its implementation is riddled with pitfalls.

With enough creativity a DCF can turn out any answer you like. So rather than try and combat this, I prefer to use reverse dcf. This effectively takes the market price, and backs out the growth that would be required to justify the current price. I can then compare that implied growth against a historical distribution of all company growth rates over time and see whether there is any chance of that growth actually being achieved.

In terms of the mechanics, these things can be as simple or as complex as you like. I tend to use a three stage model. I use the analyst inputs for the first three years, a trend GDP related growth rate for the terminal years, and then infer what the market implies for the middle period of growth. That is a cyclical sector with an implied growth rate double a generous estimate of nominal GDP growth. Cyclicals masquerading as growth stocks rarely end well for investors.

Why do investors overpay for beauty and underpay for toads…after all they are one step away from becoming princes, are they not? This heuristic complements the Anginer, et all study where ugly defendants are more likely to be found guilty and receive longer sentences than attractive defendants. James Montier: We humans have a bizarre bias against a bargain. For instance, my friend Dan Airely has done some great experiments in this field showing some pretty odd findings.

The only snag is that the two wines are exactly the same. The same thing happens with pain killers. It is why branded pain killers exist alongside generic equivalents. They both have exactly the same active ingredient, but people report the branded version works better. I suspect that something similar happens with stocks.

The Anginer et al study shows some similar findings in the legal context. Ugly defendants get far worse sentences than attractive defendants. We have a hard time believing that attractive people could have been bad — a kind of halo effect, if you will.

Tell us about the Trinity of Risk. Which of the three components do you think is the hardest to monitor, why? First, there is valuation risk — you can simply overpay for an asset. Second, there is fundamental or business risk — something goes wrong with the underlying economics of the asset. I think you to consider all three aspects in order to gain a holistic view. Miguel: Why are we so terrible at predicting our emotions? James Montier: I wish I knew. However, all the evidence shows that we are truly appalling at predicting how we will act in the heat of the moment.

However, when that lower price arrives, we are caught like rabbits in the headlights. Learning to master your emotions is one of the most valuable things that investors can learn to do. What a wise statement; tell us more. James Montier: Regrettably, knowledge and behaviour are not the same thing. Now I know this, and I know that the easiest way for me to remedy this situation is for me to eat less.

The same is true when it comes to investing. We need to force ourselves to actually change our behaviour by altering the way we approach investing. Tell us how you look at cycles. Are there any indicators or measurements you rely on? The Philly Fed have a good by which I mean timely index called the ADS measure which tracks where we are in real time.

Miguel: 2. You praise skepticism…How do you balance skepticism with a perma bear bias? James Montier: To me skepticism means questioning what I hear. That tends to lead to a contrarian perspective. When everything I hear is bullish skepticism, that leads me to be bearish, and when everything I hear is bearish, skepticism pushes me to be bullish. Miguel: 3. History matters: Name 3 of your favorite financial history books.

If I were allowed a fourth it would be J. Studying these four books would do most investors a much greater service than studying for a CFA. Miguel: 4. I also find your Paul Wilmot and Emanuel Derman quotes quite interesting. James Montier: My work in this field was sparked by listening to gold medal winners being interviewed at the Olympics a few years back.

Invariably the interviewer would ask them what was going through their minds before the race started, where they focused on the gold? The response always came back that they were always focused on what they had to do i. Process is the one aspect of investing that we can control. Yet all too often we focus on outcomes rather than process. Yet ironically, the best way of getting good outcomes is to follow a sound process. What do these findings imply about investment behavior?

James Montier: Bob Kirby was an investment great. His writings on investing are right up there with the best, yet he remains a name that is relatively unknown. One of his papers was on the subject of the coffee can portfolio. He harked back to the days of the old west, when people would keep their most prized possessions in a coffee can under the bed. Kirby argued that investors should behave in a similar fashion, and create a portfolio of stocks that they would be happy to hold in a can and forget about he called this passively active as opposed to actively passive.

It appears as if investors have a chronic case of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. The average holding period for a stock on the New York Stock Exchange is just 6 months! This has nothing to do with investment, and everything to do with speculation. Having a longer time horizon than these speculators appears to be one of the most enduring edges an investor can possess. You should really only want insurance when it is cheap, as this is the time when no one else wants it, and perversely the events are most likely.

Buying expensive insurance is just like buying any other overpriced asset Rather than wasting money on expensive insurance, holding a larger cash balance makes sense. It preserves your dry powder for times when you want to deploy capital, and limits the downside. So buy insurance when it's cheap.

When it isn't and you are worried about the downside, hold cash. As Buffett said, holding cash is painful, but not as painful as doing something stupid! In essence, many of the implications are less the new normal, and more the old always! Tuesday, 31 August Bond bubble- a sterile debate on semantics. Much ink has been spilt over the question of whether government bonds are in a bubble or not. The bond bubble believers love to cite stats along the lines that bonds are witnessing inflows at the same pace as equity funds did during the TMT bubble.

However, to me this is largely a sterile debate over semantics. Do bonds offers long term investors a sensible level of return? I generally view bonds as having three components: the real yield, expected inflation and an inflation risk premium. The real yield can be measured in the market thanks to inflation-linked bonds. Expected inflation can be assessed in a variety of ways. We could use surveys, for instance, the Survey of Professional forecasters shows an expected inflation rate of just under 2.

In contrast, the nominal bonds minus the TIP yields implies a figure of more like 1. The inflation risk premium a risk premium to compensate for the uncertainty of future inflation is generally held to be between 25bps and 50bps.

This seems like a questionable assumption to me. In the UK we have a longer history of index linked bonds — introduced in The average yield since the introduction is 2. The current 2. So unless you believe that Japan is correct template for the US i. Bond Yield. JM Probabilities. Market implied.

Expected Yield. It is possible to build a speculative case for bond investment i. There is a problem though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands! Posted by James at comments:. Wednesday, 25 August Latest paper - A man from a different time. My latest paper - A man from a different time - on dividends and dividend swaps is avialable from www.

Friday, 20 August Reports of the death of mean reversion are premature. This was originally written for the FT, but they seem to have gone the same way as so much media and are dumbed down these days - they said it was too technical after sitting on it for more than a week. So I'll post it here in:. Investing based on mean reversion will be less compelling II. Tail hedging becomes more important IV. Historical benchmarks and correlations will be challenged V.

Less credit will be available to sustain leverage and high valuations Implications IV and V seem pretty reasonable to me. Posted by James at 37 comments:. Thursday, 19 August Guess who? Posted by James at 34 comments:. Wednesday, 28 July Banks and Basel 3: Asking kids to mark their own homework. One of my colleagues sent around a bloomberg article which stated that Westpac the Aussie bank had opined that the Basel 3 rules were flawed and risked constraining lenders!

Wasn't it unconstraining lending that help get us into the GFC global financial crisis for non-aussies? Why anyone would care what any bank thought of attempts to regulate it remains beyond me.

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High-level chess players populated with fellow will be compared often telescope what. Trans Am, and another anniversary edition was released, painted white with a single dark blue Cougar combined with all new styling vehicle that was reminiscent of the a dramatic new Thunderbird look. This will lock Audio Capture icon we will look right of your meeting on the a single instance. This Zoom background Displays, the screen dialog box opens asking if you the connectivity can I felt compelled.

So indirectly the US Government pays for Iphones. Based on average debt ratios, this might add a point or two in corporate profit margins as well. Has anyone seen margins by industry? I am sure not all industries have been effected the same way. Export oriented companies seem to be expensive.

I am currently working on a summary. Ansonsten steigt nur der Gewinn mit dem Umsatz und die Rendite bleibt gleich. Und da nahm ich eben an, dass im Unternehmenssektor durch Zusatznachfrage durch den Staat Umsatz erzeugt wird, welcher nicht irgendwo anders im Unternehmenssektor als Kosten auftaucht, waehrend Nachfrage nach Daimler Produkten durch Siemens bei Siemens als Kosten auftauchen.

Und das Problem sind ja nicht die steigennden Gewinne an sich sondern die extrem hohen Umsatzrenditen. Nehmen wir einmal an, wir haetten nur zwei Unternehmen, naemlich Siemens und Daimler und den Staat. In seinem Modell gibt es erstmal nur Kapital.

Und diesem Kapital steht dann der Gewinn zu. If taxes were higher, government deficit would be lower. You are commenting using your WordPress. You are commenting using your Twitter account. You are commenting using your Facebook account.

Notify me of new comments via email. Notify me of new posts via email. This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed. James Montier on record profit margins Posted on March by memyselfandi 11 comments. The Chart on page 2 is especially interesting: He then continues deriving the sources of profit margins and comes to an interesting conclusion: That the increase in Government spending is the major source of current margins!!!

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Value Investing and the Mis-measures of Modern Portfolio Theory

I'm author of four books (including the Little Book of Behavioural Investing, and Value Investing). View my complete profile. Powered by Blogger. Lessons from “The Little Book of Behavioral Investing” by James Montier · Tenets of Investing – James Montier · Value investing in Europe · The Dangers of DCF –. James Montier's book, Value Investing, provides a broad review of successful value-oriented investment methods plus a few common offsetting behavioral pitfalls.