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For illustrative purposes only. We can use the liability profile shown in Figure 1 to demonstrate different approaches to hedging the risks inherent in the liabilities. To do this, we assume that a bond portfolio has been constructed that has the same value present value as the liabilities at the outset of the year simulation period. Using Monte Carlo techniques, we then simulate 10, paths for the bond assets and the liabilities over the course of this period.
To establish the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches to hedging plan liabilities, we investigate the performance of three bond portfolios, where the liabilities are always discounted using the FTSE Pension Discount Curve. In addition, to keep the analysis simple, in these simulations we assume that the value of the bond assets, whatever their composition, matches the value of the liabilities at the start of the year simulation period.
As we progress through the strategies listed above, we gradually increase the precision of the matching strategy. To answer this question, we simulate the paths of the liabilities and assets described above 10, times in each case. This allows us to look at the consequences of each hedging strategy. To run the simulation exercises for each of the strategies, we used monthly data on all the key financial variables spanning the period from to Figure 2 presents some results that summarise the simulations.
In summary, these results demonstrate that the KRD strategies produce better results in terms of risk management than those that can be achieved investing in a traditional bond portfolio. Having demonstrated how different approaches to liability hedging strategies perform, we now turn our attention to the growth portfolio.
The main purpose of the growth portfolio is to generate the returns needed to make up for the deficit when the plan is underfunded. Again, using data spanning the period to , we investigate the performance of a combination of equities and bond portfolios. We also introduce the plan sponsor into these simulations. One of the most important assets of any pension plan is the financial support of the sponsor. The three alternative bond portfolios are represented by:.
The results of these simulations are shown in Panels A and B of Figure 3. In Panel A, we again present the 5 th percentile of the distribution of funding ratios after 10 years. These results indicate that, although the hedging strategies—both duration matching and KRD—result in better funding ratio outcomes than would be achieved by investing in a conventional bond portfolio, represented here by the Agg, the volatility of equities dominates the benefits achieved from the hedging strategies.
The chart shows that from year 5 onward, the matching strategies reach this threshold more often than is achieved with the traditional bond portfolio. In summary, an investment strategy that relies too heavily on the performance of equity markets, other things equal, will likely experience higher funding volatility. So far, the results have demonstrated that a KRD approach to hedging liabilities produced excellent results in terms of risk management and that a reliance on equities to close this gap, even combined with a hedging strategy and with support from the plan sponsor, could still leave the plan underfunded after 10 years.
By diversifying across a range of asset classes, any shock to one of the components, such as the equity holding, might have less of an impact if other return-seeking asset classes are imperfectly correlated with the performance of the equity market. This is the benefit of diversification. Achieving this diversification by investing in alternative and real asset classes such as infrastructure, commercial property, timber, and agriculture—which we refer to as Plus assets for LDI portfolios—has the added benefit of bringing the risk characteristics of the growth portfolio more in line with the risk characteristics of the liabilities.
By investing in Plus assets, pension plans are essentially killing two birds with one stone. To investigate the value of integrating Plus assets into the growth portfolio, the plan can also allocate its funds to the following real assets represented by the related total return financial market indexes:.
For investors such as pension plans, with very long-dated financial commitments, this illiquidity represents less of a drawback and more of an opportunity. This is because investors in these asset classes can expect to earn a liquidity premium; that is, an addition to return in compensation for assuming this illiquidity. In Panel A, we see that the 5 th percentile for the strategy that incorporates Plus assets is lower than the comparable simulation without Plus assets.
We see that the probability is lower at all points over the period with the inclusion of the Plus assets. This leads us naturally to another important conclusion: While rebalancing liquid asset classes such as government bond portfolios and equity portfolios, investors should not attempt to manage illiquid asset classes in the same way; instead, a more strategic, dynamic approach to the problem is needed.
In summary, we can say that including Plus assets into the growth portfolio requires a more dynamic approach to the management of the return-seeking assets than can be achieved through straightforward annual rebalancing. In this section of the paper, we introduce dynamic decision-making.
We do this by using cutting-edge simulation technology known as multistage stochastic programming MSP , 3 which is widely used in operations research. MSP allows for more sophisticated financial market models and realistic constraints, such as constraints on assets, transaction costs, and taxes, compared with more conventional simulation methods. It also allows us to introduce specific objectives for the plan over the year simulation period, objectives that could be thought of as representing a strategy implemented by its managers.
Objective 2—We assume that the plan wishes to maximise the funding ratio over the year planning ratio. These are realistic objectives for any real-world pension plan. We can also calculate the median funding level of the plan and the 5 th percentile of the funding ratio distribution at 10 years, which we present in Figure 5. Panels A and B of Figure 5 present the results of our optimised approach; they show a dramatic improvement in the funding ratio position compared with the equivalent nondynamic simulation, adding Plus assets, the results of which we include in the figure for purposes of comparison.
In practice, of course, a plan with very strong funding would likely seek a buyout; in other words, the sponsor and plan managers would be unlikely to have such a high funding ratio as an objective. With regard to this dynamic approach, in Figure 6 we present the median asset allocation of the representative plan over this year period; we can think of this as being the optimal asset allocation of the plan. In summary, these results show the important and dynamic role that can be played by Plus assets in a derisking journey as plans seek to achieve their funding objectives.
We live in a world of uncertainty. From the impacts of climate change, global pandemics, and increasing longevity to potential changes in the very nature of financial markets, all or any of these factors can bear on the ability of pension plans to become fully funded down the road. Rather than hoping for the best, plan sponsors must consider the worst scenario they can sustain.
They must identify the risks, determine whether their current strategy allows them to sustain this uncertainty going forward, and use that as their basis for making strategic decisions for the future. Today, pension plans large and small have access to custom approaches using a mix of LDI funds designed to closely match liabilities and calibrate their credit exposure.
The school is an integral part of City, University of London, and is consistently ranked amongst the best business schools and programmes in the world. A widespread health crisis such as a global pandemic could cause substantial market volatility, exchange-trading suspensions and closures, and affect portfolio performance.
For example, the novel coronavirus disease COVID has resulted in significant disruptions to global business activity. The impact of a health crisis and other epidemics and pandemics that may arise in the future could affect the global economy in ways that cannot necessarily be foreseen at the present time. A health crisis may exacerbate other preexisting political, social and economic risks. Investing involves risks, including the potential loss of principal.
Financial markets are volatile and can fluctuate significantly in response to company, industry, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. These risks are magnified for investments made in emerging markets. The information provided does not take into account the suitability, investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific person, plan sponsor, or plan. You should consider the suitability of any type of investment for your circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.
This material is intended for the exclusive use of recipients in jurisdictions who are allowed to receive the material under their applicable law. Despite these modeling problems — and the model risk that results — the pension plan still can measure the duration gap between the assets and liabilities.
Usually asset duration is significantly lower than liability duration. The next step is to decide to maintain or to reduce that gap, for instance, using interest rate derivatives overlays, such as receive-fixed swaps, that have positive duration. Another possibility is to estimate the real rate and inflation durations of the liabilities and then to use linkers as part of the risk reduction strategy. In turn, these personalities frequently assume The Routledge Companion to Media Disinformation and Populism Invest assets wisely As you become a high net worth HNW individual and you have separated business risk from personal assets you will need to make decisions on investments.
One of them is the choice of management of your money between self-management and external management. In the former case you will need to undertake Investments: An Introduction Continue to invest assets wisely It is even more essential to focus on investing assets wisely and to allow for bear markets.
As noted, it is wise to take objective advice and not be emotionally involved with your investments. However, if you are well-schooled in the investment industry it is likely that you will embrace self-management Investments: An Introduction The life-cycle and investing As we said upfront, the above exposition is of little use if one does not have investments. Achieving your FSG at an appropriate age i. Investments: An Introduction The instruments ultimate investments of the ultimate borrowers The instruments of debt and shares ultimate investments of the financial system and their issuers the ultimate borrowers are as follows: The household sector issues: - Non-marketable debt NMD securities: - Examples: overdraft loan from a bank; mortgage loan from a bank.
The corporate Investments: An Introduction Real investments As we have seen, real investments are usually categorized into: - Property. There are of course many subcategories to be found under each see below. Real investments have many characteristics that differentiate them from Investments: An Introduction Property Of the real investments, property is the most significant investment for the retail investor individual And it usually makes up a large percentage of the portfolio when young - because the individual is obliged to have this asset.
There are many forms of Investments: An Introduction Other real investments "Other real investments", as we have briefly seen, include investments in items such as: - Art of masters such as Rembrandt.