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When a market is trending, you will see a stair-stepping pattern of higher highs and higher lows in the case of an uptrend. There is an imbalance of buyers and sellers and you can generally see the difference between an impulse move and a corrective move. Once that condition stops, markets tend to find themselves range-bound — stuck between a high and a low and continue to oscillate between these two points.
Buyers and sellers have found a point of relative equilibrium and you can find yourself in a very choppy environment if attempting to trade between the extremes. This will happen in any trading time frame. Range trading ignores the overall trend direction and will trade price moves between two easily defined price levels for a period of time. You will later see that price falls back and takes out the 3 low and you can clearly see that price is not in a trending pattern.
You have the extremes of our range labeled as 1 and 2 but 4 highlights an important fact about these levels: High and low points are zones, not always specific price levels. When looking at these turns, consider them to be zones with a margin of error both outside and inside the range. Range trading will take into account both extreme zones and a trader will look to position a trade against the potential zones of support and resistance that form the range.
When range trading, the shape of the consolidation can vary and make going long or short more difficult. When you see price breakout out of both extremes and failing to trend, plus each swing is larger than the previous you get a range that is expanding. These are not something I want to take part in as the market has no clear cut consensus on what it wants to do. Also, if taking a position in this type of environment, where would you put your stop?
Being unable to define the stop on the trade can interfere with your risk profile for your trading plan. Keep in mind that a simple breach of either extreme does not invalidate the range as the range could simply be expanding to a larger size. This type of expanding range is different than the broadening formation where markets will make, for example, a high, a lower low, and then hit a higher high. That is price exploration and is actually quite common.
While there are different names for each chart pattern, I keep it simple and if the market is not in a trending state, I call it simply a range-bound market. This is the opposite of the expanding range and here price appears to zero in on a particular price point. Compression is occurring and generally, a trader will look to position themselves in the breakout of the move when it occurs. Noting there is compression is important because when it breaks, there could be strong movement behind it. Given that, looking to fade breaks of these types of compression ranges is probably not a wise trading plan.
Trading indicators can aid in your decisions when range trading and oscillators can have a place as part of a trading plan. The extremes are marked by the circles but you can see later that the top gets exceeded in a breakout failure type of action. The indicator plots into the overbought area not a signal by itself and you have a shift in momentum which is shown by the cross of the indicator lines.
The indicator is part of an overall range trading plan and should not be the only variable you use for making a trading decision. Simple still works in trading and the key is discipline and consistency. Without those, any type of success will be short-lived regardless of the merits of your trading system. Trading ranges are formed with support and resistance zones. You can look for current ranges or find trending markets that are starting to slow down.
This chart has an uptrend in play and then the price started to pullback. The high is marked off and once the pivot low is in place, that is marked as well. For the trend to continue, you need to see a higher high. If that does not develop, you can start thinking of a range play.
With the extremes of the range marked off, you now have areas where you can monitor what price does and if you have a trading opportunity. In our example chart, the yellow highlights areas of interest. We needed a price to make an attempt at the extremes. You would think that placing your stop just outside of the extreme would make sense.
After all, you often read that you should place the stop where you would be proven wrong. The problem is that you can have the extreme broken and the trade and range is still valid. Think back to the expanded range chart and you can see that the range play is still a valid trading opportunity. The range still exists but with different extremes. There is a pattern called a failure test that needs to break an extreme and can take you out of your current trade when you should actually be getting into a trade.
Given that most people base their position size on their stop size, this could lead to very small positions or, depending on the market and your capital, no trade. Inside the range? Thinking about where the majority of people put their stops textbook stops , where do stop runs usually go?
Depending on the market and trading volume, a stop run could have traders exiting at prices beyond their stop due to slippage. Being stopped out in this example may have had slippage giving you a worse risk profile than you planned for. When price is going to come close to the extreme, it is probably going to test the extreme and slightly beyond. A stop just inside of the extreme will have you out of the trade before the stop runs trigger. The fact is there is not a perfect location for the stop that will still allow an optimum position size.
I use the ATR for all my stop-loss positions. Once a range has formed and you have determined where the extreme zones are, you now know exactly where you are to look for a trading opportunity. The price will either break out of the extremes, reverse at the extremes, or expand at the extremes. You will have some type of action around these levels that can range from a clean test of the level to price whipping around the zone.
The key is to have a trading strategy that sets up what you are looking for and how you are going to trade it. When a trading strategy does this, it is a good sign, because it means that compounding and aggressive money management strategies can be used to maximize profit.
However, there is a big problem with trying to implement this range trading strategy: the cost of all the trades. In a sense, it is also meaningless to apply modern spreads against historical results going back all the way to the year In fact, if you applied historical retail spreads and costs of access to the market since , I am certain it would wipe away all the profit.
We have a solid concept here: the Forex market clearly ranges. Is there a robust strategy we can use to exploit this over the long term with good risk management that does not suffer excessively from associated trading costs? A ranging market means a market that does not get away from its average price for long. In fact, it stands to reason that the further and faster the price moves away from its moving averages, the greater and faster the profit there is to be made in focusing on fading those moves.
What if instead of trying to do something complex with Bollinger bands or moving averages, we only traded against daily moves that were greater than some predefined amount? This would produce less trades, but would reduce trading costs, and might make profits lumpier but also more probable. It would make most sense to use a measure of average volatility. For example, trade against any daily move larger than the average true range ATR of the previous twenty days.
However for our statistical analysis here, we can use defined amounts. An amended table is shown below exhibiting how the results would change if trades are taken only following daily moves larger than increments of 0. Of course, you have to consider that the cost per trade will usually be about 0. The problem is that it is very difficult to make a worthwhile return trying to exploit mean reversion unless you are a market-maker, and this is why although the profits are more irregular, retail traders should be able to make more money from trend trading than from range trading.
As I mentioned before, the big players can make serious money trading this way, and it is a major advantage that market makers have over retail traders. Adam Lemon. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. He has previously worked within financial markets over a year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy.
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